Lightning strikes again and Cassel is for Real: 2009 AFC West Preview

Last season the Chargers made a late move to overtake the struggling Broncos down the stretch, and even managed to win a playoff game at home versus the Colts. But, that was last year, and the entire landscape of the division has changed. Gone is Jay Cutler from a Bronco team that seems to be moving more toward rebuilding than contending for the division. In Kansas City there is a lot of optimism after the signing of Matt Cassel. Then out in Oakland, there may be a little momentum going after they won their final two games, including one in Tampa that would send the Bucs packing. As much optimism as there may be in these three NFL cities, it all may be forgotten if San Diego has anything to say about it.

San Diego Chargers 2008 Record 8-8 Won AFC West

The Chargers look to be the class of the division again. On offense a healthy LaDainian Tomlinson will look to get back to one hundred percent and another 1000 yard season. He will have help with Darren Sproles returning. Sproles emerged late in the season after LT was hampered by yet another late season injury. Sproles went for 100 yards in the division clinching season finale win over Denver, and had another solid game against Indy in the playoffs. Sproles and LT could be a dominant 1-2 punch both on the ground and through the air.

The passing game is again on the shoulders of Phillips Rivers. Rivers threw for over 4000 yards and 35 TD’s last season to just 11 INT’s. Perhaps his favorite target is All Pro tight end Antonio Gates. Gates grabbed 60 balls for over 800 yards last season, and is a huge target when the Chargers get into the end zone. The big question going into last season was whether there were the receivers to make the big plays. Vincent Jackson proved to be a rising star. He had a 1000 yard season, and averaged over 18 yards per catch. Joining him at receiver is veteran Chris Chambers and Malcolm Floyd.

On defense it may be lights out for the opponents, as in the lights out dance. Shawne Merriman returns after missing all but one game last season. Joining him at Linebacker is the talented Shaun Phillips. Phillips was solid last year, accumulating 74 tackles and 7.5 sacks and with Merriman’s return, should have an even bigger 2009 campaign. Even with Merriman back, the real diamond in the rough may be first round draft pick Larry English. The first round pick from Northern Illinois will line up opposite Luis Castillo at end and cause havoc for opposing offenses. English racked up over 30 sack and 200 tackles in his college career. In the secondary Antonio Cromartie, Quentin Jammer, and Antoine Cason lead a quick and talented defensive backfield. But, if the Chargers are going to charge into the post season they will need more than the seven INT’s they combined for last season.

The schedule may be their biggest foe. This year they play all division winners in the AFC, the entire AFC North, and the tough NFC East. It may come down to if they can upset a team like the Steelers or Giants, but in all likelihood it will be that they beat up on the teams in their division. Chargers play well enough to get into the post season yet again.

Kansas City Chiefs 2008 Record 2-14

The Herm Edwards era is over in Kansas City, which saw the Chiefs win fewer and fewer games each season. Now it is up to Todd Haley to lead the Chiefs back in to the promise land. The one thing Haley doesn’t have to worry about his who his quarterback will be. In the offseason the Chiefs traded for Patriots quarterback Matt Cassel, who made the Pats fans forget about the injured Tom Brady for the majority of 2008. Cassel threw for over 3600 yards and 21TD’s in his first year as a starter. The big question may be protecting him, as he was sacked 47 times last year, but look for him to get solid protection behind a line that has a nice mix of veterans and youth. Larry Johnson hopes to return to form, after a so-so year last season with a mediocre 870 yards on the ground. A lot was made out of Johnson’s attitude towards the team in the offseason, but according to Todd Haley, he is here and will play for the Chiefs. Expect him to step up and have another 1000 yard season. With Tony Gonzalez gone, someone will have step up and be the go to guy. Dwayne Bowe just may be that guy after having a 1000 yard season last year. But who lines up across from Bowe could be up in the air going into camp. Bobby Engram brings a veteran presence, but is getting up there in age. Meanwhile Devard Darling, Jeff Webb, and Terrance Cooper will all be vying for playing time.

On defense improvement is needed. Some of the pieces are in place, but just need some of that much needed NFL experience. New Linebacker Mike Vrabel comes over from New England and will instantly bring veteran leadership to this unit. Lining up next to him is Derrick Johnson. Johnson missed two games due to injury last season, and failed to record 100 tackles. Look for this to change in 2009 as he could be due for an All Pro season. Up front the Chiefs will try to get more pressure on the quarterback this year. Glenn Dorsey has a season under his belt now, and paired with Tank Tyler and rookie Alex Magee, there should be no reason why this unit doesn’t record more sacks. Another key is on the end. Will Tamba Hali record more than three sacks this season? This line could be the difference between the Chiefs making strides and pressuring the Chargers or going home. In the secondary the two Brandons at Corner are young. Both are entering their second season, and showed promise at times last year. Look for Brandon Flowers to emerge as their shut down corner and give that defense a ball-hawking player that they so desperately need.

It takes time to build a champion, but the Chiefs are taking some good steps. If their running game is steady, and Matt Cassel steps up and has a solid season, they should be able to stay in most of their games. The big question will be if that young defense can gel and stop teams. The Chiefs will finish in second right on San Diego’s heals and bring respectability back to Arrowhead.

Oakland Raiders 2008 Record 5-11

The Raiders just haven’t been able to get it together since losing the losing the Super Bowl just a few years ago. Tom Cable was promoted from interim Head Coach to Head Coach in the off season, which made many people scratch their heads. Also a head scratcher may be who starts at quarterback. Jamarcus Russell was a number one overall draft pick in 2007. Two seasons into his career he has not even come close to living up to his potential. Backing Russell up is veteran Jeff Garcia, who may be the best man for the job. Garcia, mainly a pocket passer that can scramble, has proven he can make big throws and spread defenses out, whereas Russell has not been able to do that yet. The passing game is where the Raiders have to do better, and they at least tried to address the receiver position in the draft. Michael Crabtree was still sitting there when Oakland was put on the clock. Everyone thought Crabtree was a lock, but no. Darrius Heyward Bey, a speedy receiver out of Maryland got his name called. Who? Well, Al Davis loves speed receivers, but I cannot see Bey being the next James Jett or Willie Gault. Javon Walker is also on this team that needs improvement. Walker spent most of last season on the Injured reserve list. The bright spot for the silver and black is with the running game. Justin Fargas, Darren McFadden, and Michael Bush all saw time last year. The trio ran for over 1800 yards and 8 touchdowns. Look for McFadden to become the feature back this season, and help whoever starts at QB by being a threat to catch balls out of the backfield.

On defense the star is corner Nnamdi Asomugha. Asomugha only has one pick last year, but that is because no one threw at him. Instead team decided to pick at the other corners, and had success. If this unit can become better, the Raiders need better support from the other corner, as well as from the safeties. Kirk Morrison is the anchor of the front seven. The middle linebacker recorded over 130 tackles last year, and 99 of them were solo. He is a sure tackle defensive monster out there in the middle. Lining up with his is another good backer in Thomas Howard who recorded 97 tackles, with 80 of them being solo. The front four should be solid, but how solid. Tommy Kelly may be the best the Raiders have to offer here. He is a solid force at tackle and racked up over 50 tackles and 4.5 sacks last year. Hoping to help this unit in the pass rushing department is veteran Derrick Burgess and tackle Gerrard Warren. But now Burgess is a Patriot, so who will step it up? The Raiders will need someone to step in and be a solid pass rusher.

The commitment to excellence is no longer alive; it is more like a commitment to mediocrity. This year will be more of the same. If they go with Garcia at QB, get a solid effort out of their defense, and more output threw the air, then they may have a chance at .500. But don’t hold your breath Raider fans. Oakland ends up below five hundred and not ahead of Denver by too much in 3^rd place.

Denver Broncos 2008 Record 8-8

Oakland started last season strong and looked to be the team to beat in the West. Then, a slide down the stretch, including a week 17 blowout, left them at 8-8 and heading to the offseason instead of the post season. Gone is Jay Cutler. Gone is Mike Shanahan. Is Brandon Marshall next? New head coach Josh McDaniels spurned Jay Cutler in the offseason by trying to work out a trade for his former guy in New England, Matt Cassel. Well, Cassel ended up in Kansas City, and Cutler demanded his way out of Denver. Now the quarterbacking job will go to either Chris Simms or Kyle Orton. Orton has played well at times, especially when he is just managing the game so his Bears defense can win it. Simms had all the potential in the world coming out of college, but has yet to really take the next step to super star status. Whoever wins this battle will have several prime targets to throw to. Brandon Marshall is coming off of a 1200 yards 100 catch season last year. Joining him is Eddie Royal who had a spectacular rookie season with nearly 1000 yards and 5 TD’s. Jabar Gaffney, Brandon Stokley, and Chad Jackson round out a solid group of pass catchers. The Broncos have a plethora of running backs, and that may be a good thing after last season’s running back carousel of injuries. Correll Buckhalter, Peyton Hillis, Selvin Young, JJ Arrington, and LaMont Jordan will all be vying for carries. First round pick Knowshon Moreno will also see action, but the Broncos may choose to ease him into the grind of being an NFL back.

Champ Bailey will be joined by free agent veteran Brian Dawkins. Dawkins, who spent most of his career in Philly brings leadership and solid tackling to an already good secondary. Renaldo Hill will join him at the other safety. Hill spent last season with the Dolphins. Andre’ Goodman had 5 picks last year opposite of Bailey, and is solid enough to make teams not want to throw against both corners. At linebacker Elvis Dumervil will make the switch from end to outside backer in the new 3-4 scheme. Dumervil will certainly add to his 5 sack output from a year ago. Returning from injury is Boss Bailey. Bailey had 40 tackles last season before missing the last 9 games due to injury. On the line first rounder Robert Ayers should give the front three a pass rushing end. Look for him to get plenty of snaps, but guys will get shuffled in and out early to find who the best combinations are.

Things will not be terrible in Denver, but they won’t be great either. A new quarterback, along with the potential of starting a rookie running back makes things a little shaky on offense. The defense will go through some growing pains too, switching over to the 3-4. A tough first six games could spell trouble for the Broncos, and leave morale at a season low. Denver will struggle to a last place finish in the AFC West, and be looking for answers at quarterback in 2010.